联合国：明年4月，印度将超中国成为人口第一大国

联合国预测印度人口数量将在明年4月中旬超过中国，成为全球第一人口大国。

India is forecast to surpass China as the world's most populous country by mid-April next year, a United Nations report said.

图源：联合国网站截图

路透社报道称，自 1947 年独立后，印度人口增长了超 10 亿。从上世纪下半叶开始，印度就一直保持着高速的人口增长，年增长率达到了2%，预计到 2050 年，印度人口会达到 16.4 亿。

India saw rapid population growth — almost 2 percent annually — for much of the second half of the last century. The UN projects that India's population will be 1.64 billion by 2050.

图源：CNN

报道认为印度不太可能再一次经历人口爆炸，印度的生育率在近几十年里已连续下滑：从1950年每名妇女生育5.7个孩子下降到如今每名妇女生育2个孩子，尽管这一下降速度相对其他亚洲国家和地区来说偏慢。

Yet India is not undergoing a population explosion. India's fertility rate has also fallen substantially in recent decades - from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to two births per woman today - but the rate of decline has been slower.

据英国广播公司（BBC）报道，世界上25岁以下的人口中有五分之一来自印度，47%的印度人年龄在25岁以下。经济学家什鲁蒂·拉贾戈帕兰在一篇新论文中指出：“这一代印度年轻人将成为知识和网络商品经济中最大的消费者和劳动力来源，印度人将成为全球最大的人才库。”

According to BBC, one in five people below 25 years in the world is from India and 47 percent of Indians are below the age of 25. "This generation of young Indians will be the largest consumer and labor source in the knowledge and network goods economy. Indians will be the largest pool of global talent," says Shruti Rajagopalan, an economist, in a new paper.

图源：BBC网站报道截图

报道认为，印度超越中国成为人口最大的国家，将更有利于印度争取联合国安理会常任理事国的席位。联合国经济和社会事务部人口司司长约翰•威尔莫斯（John Wilmoth）表示：“（作为人口最多的国家)，我认为你有一定的权利。”

It could, for example, strengthen India's claim of getting a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. "I think you have certain claims on things (by being the country with largest population)," says John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

图源：CNN

报道也指出成为全球第一人口大国后带来的挑战。首先，印度需要为年轻的劳动年龄人口创造足够的就业机会，来获得人口红利。但根据印度经济监测中心（CMIE）的数据，印度只有40%的劳动年龄人口工作或想要工作。

India needs to create enough jobs for its young working age population to reap a demographic pidend. But only 40 percent of of India's working-age population works or wants to work, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

随着女性生育和照顾孩子的时间变少，更多印度女性需要工作，但她们的境况并不尽如人意。同时，印度经济监测中心数据显示，仅有 10% 的印度适龄妇女进入了劳动力市场，相比之下，中国的这一数字为 69%。

More women would need jobs as they spend less time in their working age giving birth and looking after children. The picture here is bleaker: only 10 percent of working-age women were participating in the labor force in October, according to CMIE, compared with 69 percent in China.

图源：视觉中国

然后是移民问题。大约有2亿印度人在国内各地迁移，他们的人数肯定还会增长。大多数是离开农村到城市找工作的工人。“城市能为移民提供尚可的生活水平吗？如果不能，我们最终会有更多的贫民窟和疾病。”印度喀拉拉邦移民与发展国际研究所的移民专家伊鲁达亚·拉詹（S. Irudaya Rajan）说。

Then there's migration. Some 200 million Indians have migrated within the country — between states and districts — and their numbers are bound to grow. Most are workers who leave villages for cities to find work. "Can our cities provide migrants a reasonable living standard? Otherwise, we will end up with more slums and disease," says S. Irudaya Rajan, a migration expert at Kerala's Center for Development Studies.

人口学家说，印度还需要制止童婚、防止早婚，正确登记出生和死亡人数。出生性别比失衡，男孩比女孩多，这仍然令人担忧。

Demographers say India also needs to stop child marriages, prevent early marriages and properly register births and deaths. A skewed sex ratio at birth — meaning more boys are born than girls — remains a worry.

图源：视觉中国

人口学家还表示，印度的老龄化问题很少受到关注。如今，印度年龄中位数超过28岁，超过10%的印度人超过60岁。有学者认为，随着劳动年龄人口的减少，赡养老年人将成为印度政府资源越来越大的负担。家庭结构的变化以及空巢老人的增多带来的问题也将不断地浮出水面。

Demographers say the ageing of India receives little attention. In 1947, India's median age was 21. A paltry 5 percent of people were above the age of 60. Today, the median age is over 28, and more than 10 percent of Indians are over 60 years.

"As the working-age population declines, supporting an older population will become a growing burden on the government's resources," says Rukmini S, author of Whole Numbers and Half Truths.

"Family structures will have to be recast and elderly persons living alone will become an increasing source of concern," she says.

编辑：朱迪齐

实习生：周红

来源：参考消息 CNN BBC 路透社

China Daily精读计划来了！

每天20分钟，

带你学英语，看世界！